2026 Free Agent Evaluation : Alex Bregman
Originally published on my Substack 2026 Free Agent Evaluation : Alex Bregman on 11/24/25. All Bozzy Baseball Blogs are initially posted to my Substack due to the ability to post video analysis.
Player: Alex Bregman
DOB: 03/30/1994 | Age: 31 | Birthplace: Albuquerque, NM
B/T: R/R | H/W: 5’ 11” / 190 | Pos: 3B
Service Time: 9.070 | Agent: Boras Corporation
Part of writing these evaluations is looking back at some of my evals last year, which can sometimes be cringe. But if they weren’t cringe then that would be a sign I am not growing.
Last year I wrote an eval on Alex Bregman and it missed the mark in terms of what he was actually given AAV-wise. I expected there to be some swing & miss since last year was my first offseason publishing figures for free agents. It’s a combination of my thought process and how I would do it.
Last offseason, I was spot on for players like Kiké Hernández & Harrison Bader and others I was off like Alex Bregman. When you get right down to it though I was not too far off in terms his $15 Mil base + $5 Mil signing bonus. I did not totally account for the $20M deferred from 2038–47 which has a present value of around 8–10 mil depending on the discount rate.
Bregman opted out of his deal and here we are again, so let’s get into it.
Playing History & Coaches Tree
Something new I am adding to evaluations this year is The Coaches Tree. I believe this is a value add in terms of understanding the player and coaching staffs he has crossed paths with. Not everything is analytics, sometimes a quick phone call to an old coach, trusted colleague, maybe a former coach is in your organization and could provide insight into the make up of a player. While I might not know any of these coaches, chances are someone in your organization does.
Availability
As usual we start with the best ‘ability’, availability. Over the past five seasons Alex Bregman has averaged 133 games played a season (82%), a majority coming at 3B (99%) and (1%) at DH. Over the past three seasons Bregman has averaged 140 games played a season (86%).
Injury Report
If you remove Bregman’s hamstring/quad injuries, he’s experienced typical wear and tear you’d expected to see from a hard nosed 9 year vet. It’s tough to ignore the significant time spent on the IL due to soft tissue injuries.
Speed
In 2025 Bregman was in the 17th percentile in sprint speed. In 2025, Bregman had 1 SB and 1 CS good for a 50% success rate, a net negative base stealer. Historically not a base stealer.
Defensive Profile
Bregman is a solid defender and above league average across many different metrics.
Offensive Report Card
There are plenty of ways to evaluate offensive production. For this review, I’ll measure Alex Bregman against his positional peers using an A-B-C grading scale. Specifically, I’ll compare him to the average A Grade (1–10), B Grade (11–20), and C Grade (21–30) player at his position. In Bregman’s case, his positional comp is Third Base (3B).
I use the A-B-C Grading System because it’s easy for a broad audience to understand. While it could be expanded into subgrades A+, A, A- (Elite, Great, Good); B+, B, B- (Above Average, Average, Below Average); and C+, C, C- (Well Below Average) I keep it simple here for the sake of space and clarity. Sometimes I do use these terms interchangeably.
If some of the stats look unfamiliar, welcome to Bozzy Baseball Blogs. My background is in both baseball and insurance underwriting/finance, and I’ve developed my own version of a run value system to measure offensive production. It’s an end result, neutralized Run Value system, broken down into two core components:
- RVR (Run Value Running) “The Run Tool” — Captures the value generated from non-hit plate appearances
- RVH (Run Value Hitting) “The Hit Tool” — Measures a player’s offensive impact via hitting
- RVO (Run Value Overall) “Overall” — The sum of Run Tool + Hit Tool, representing overall offensive contribution per plate appearance
Before I jump into the offensive report card. I received some feedback from a reader and they had some questions about what the rates “Hit Tool” “Run Tool” “Overall Rate” mean and how it works…
So every offensive event has a run value associated with it, and I am breaking that down to a per Plate Appearance Basis. Some readers may ask why don’t you just look at RBI and Runs Scored to determine run value? Well, that’s a good point, but not every team is created equal. Some teams are juggernauts and other are well…not juggernauts, F Tier. If you play on better teams you will have more opportunities to score runs and drive more batters in so it would be “unfair” to judge players using traditional RBI and Runs Scored stats.
My goal was/is measure each players contributions individually and to create a practical statistic. One of the frustrations I have with traditional baseball stats is they do not have much practical use. Does do WAR, OPS, wOBA, etc. really have a use case? Not really. So I give every baseball event has a predetermined set run value. I then break those value down into the Hit Tool Rate (1B,2B,3B,HR) + Run Tool Rate (BB, SB, HBP) = Overall Rate.
Career Totals — This is the widest stat lens, breaking down yearly totals. This provides a valuable look into possibly larger trends.
Bregman had a nice bounce back year in terms of RVR.
Bregman’s Hit Tool has stayed the same since 2020, hovering right around A-Grade level.
Since 2020 Bregman’s RVO has hugged that A-Grade level. Will be interesting to see where Bregman’s RVO goes from here. His BB% rate has been dipping in recent years from his career average, Career BB% is 12.09% → 5 Year BB% is 11.28% → 3 Year BB% is 10.36%. Hopefully see a bit more insight in his Handedness Splits.
Handedness — vs. RHP & LHP — Still a wide lens, but splitting the totals by LHP & RHP. This provides a valuable look into possible larger trends against left handed and right handed pitchers. One of my favorite splits to look at. This was a pivotal split last year when evaluating Tyler O’Neill.
For the past 5 years his Run Tool vs LHP has lead the way and took a much needed bump in production in 2025. Over the past 5 years his Run Tool vs RHP has generally lagged behind. 2025 was not too different than 2021 in terms of difference in production. Will his Run Tool vs RHP come back to Career Level or even 2022–2023 levels? Over his Career RVR vs RHP 0.0340 → 5 Year RVR vs RHP .030 → 3 Year RVR vs RHP .028.
Bregman’s Hit Tool vs LHP early in his career lead his production, which is normal to see. Interestingly, Bregman’s Handedness Hit Tool production flip flopped in a 3 year swing from 2020–2022 (Ages 26–28). From 2020 to 2021, you start to see a downtrend in production vs LHP and an uptick vs RHP. The two eventually flip flop in 2022 and have been that way up until 2025 where they nearly intersect again. Quite the development here in terms of handedness. This type of thing gives you confidence his Hit Tool approach/development. He’s someone that has seen highs, as well as lows and been able to find his way back to A Grade levels on both sides.
The Hit Tool progression/production from against LHP from 2022–2025 cannot be understated. He’s gone from C Grade levels, to A grade. I’m not entirely sure what caused the change during that time. His Hit Tool vs RHP has been fairly constant since 2022, so any meaningful jump to his RVO vs RHP will likely be driven by his Run Tool. That said, Bregman’s numbers in 2021 & 2025 are fairly reminiscent in some ways and do we see another flip like in 2022?
Regardless, 2025 was really a Big Bounce Back for Bregman in Beantown. Especially his Hit Tool vs LHP, and his Run Tool on both sides.
Home / Away — Still a wide lens, but splitting the totals by Home & Away. This provides a valuable look into possible larger trends at Home & Away. Not always the most informative, but interesting to look at. It was a factor in an evaluation I did last year for Jurickson Profar.
His Away RVO was better than Home RVO in 2025. His Run Tool was slightly higher at Home, but the meaningful production was primarily his Away Hit Tool. Which is a bit surprising, because Fenway really fits him.
1st Half / 2nd Half — Still a widish lens, but splitting the totals by 1st & 2nd Half. This provides a valuable look into possible larger trends. Not always the most informative, but interesting to look at. 1st/2nd Half Splits were a factor in my Kyle Tucker’s 2026 Evaluation.
Good to see the A Grade production, nice bounce back not quite to the levels prior to 2024.
Bregman’s generally been a big time 2nd Half producer throughout his Career. The 1st Half success is great to see with the Hit Tool, but the fall off in the 2nd Half needs to be looked at closer.
2025 was obviously huge for Bregman, but his Hit Tool was just not the same after the injury in game 52. We could be looking at a completely didn’t season without injuries.
2025 Rolling RVH
The RVO is well above A Grade and it was primarily driven through the Hit Tool. The 2nd Half Hit Tool really deviates from his norm a little reminiscent of his 2020–2021 2nd Half. Interestingly he spent a fairly considerable amount of time injured in all 3 seasons with leg injuries.
Situational — A still a wide lens, splitting totals into Bases Empty/ Men on Base/ Men in Scoring. This provides a valuable look into possible larger trends in particular situations. I believe Bases Empty/ Men on Base/ Men in Scoring are beneficial stats.
2025 was a good bounce back year, fairly consistent numbers all in the A Grade range in terms of Hit Tool. That’s something he had not done since early in his career. That to me says a shift in mindset.
Power / Finesse — A wide lens, splitting totals against Power/avg/Finesse Pitching. I get this data set from Baseball Reference. Baseball Reference defines Power / Finesse as ‘Power pitchers are in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Finesse are in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts plus walks’. This provides a valuable look into possible larger trends against different types of pitchers. I am generally look at the Hit Tool here.
A bounce back season in 2025. A majority of pitchers you’ll see are Avg and Finesse, but the success against Power Pitching is always good to see.
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GB / FB — A wide lens, splitting totals vs. Ground Ball/Fly Ball Pitchers. I get this data set from Baseball Reference. Baseball Reference defines Ground Ball/Fly Ball as ‘Fly Ball pitchers are in the top third of the league in ratio of fly ball outs to ground ball outs. Ground Ball are in the bottom third of the league in the ratio of fly ball outs to ground ball outs’. This provides a valuable look into possible larger trends against different types of pitchers. I am generally look at the Hit Tool here as well.
Bregman did see a drop in production against GB guys, but he saw a big jump against FB pitchers.
Pitch Mix
I do not see a massive shift in pitch usage from the prior year. The biggest shift was to Sliders (SL).
When sorting by RVO, the increase in Sliders (SL) usage against Bregman makes sense. It’s one of his lowest RVO and XBH%.
This would make a lot of sense since Bregman is not a major threat to steal bases. Try to limit his ability to do damage, and get get in scoring position.
Comps/Contract -
To me, Bregman bat speed, swing length, square up %, overall size, as well as Run Tool, Hit Tool and Overall matches up fairly well against Mookie Betts and José Ramírez. here are there splits from age 22–31 seasons
Bregman’s production is the lowest of the three, and José Ramírez’s AAV age 32–35 is $22 Mil, Mookie’s age 32–35 AAV is a $26.25 Mil base + $5 Mil signing bonus.
In 2025, Bregman had a $15 Mil Base + $5 Mil Signing Bonus + $20 Mil in deferrals from 2035–2044. For the sake of simplicity, give or take some taxes he was receiving around $28–30.8 Mil PV in 2025.
- $5 Mil Signing Bonus, taxes applied to his home state
- $15 Mil Base, good portion taxed in MA (9%)
- $20 Mil Deferrals, the present value of the deferrals @ a 5–7% discount rate is ~ 8 -10.8 Mil. I don’t know where he’ll be living in 2035–2044 so the State & Local Tax rate is up in the air.
I guess a lot depends on where Bregman lives vs the city/state trying to sign him as to where you would try to put a higher percentage of money into a signing bonus or base. I’m still not wild going beyond the age of 35, so $112-$123/4 years is kind of the bar he’s set for himself and other teams. The soft tissue injuries are a concern in combination with his age.
Historical Comps — Here are a couple good historical comps in terms of offensive production to this point in their careers, as well as position. Scott Rolen his a bit more size, but I think they have some similar hard nose defensive style. Alomar was obviously a switch hitter, but I think they have a similar physical build and offensive production. If you look at Alomar’s RHH swing earlier in his career from the right side it’s got some similar qualities to Bregman.
After the age of 35 seems the common drop off among these elite players.
Potential Fits
Lowest Production : NYY, WSN, CIN, SEA, DET, CHC, TEX, BAL, LAA.
Losing a 3B to FA: SEA (Eugenio Suárez/Jorge Polanco) BOS (Alex Bregman) LAA (Yoán Moncada) CIN (Miguel Andujar)
BOS is a fit from a Production Need Standpoint and Fenway fits his swing best. With the resigning of Bregman, one thing would be certain you don’t have to worry about 3B unless there is an injury. Which brings me to Roster/Positional Need. Boston is beginning to stockpile MLB talent with less room for development. As currently constructed there’s not much room for opportunity in either the infield or outfield, making it interesting to see how Boston approaches this situation.
As it relates to Bregman, in the infield you have Trevor Story is at SS thru ’27, Kristian Campbell signed thru ’32, Marcelo Mayer is trying to get time, as well as Ceddanne Rafaela (more of CF now) signed thru ’31. If Bregman were resigned Boston could consider platooning Mayer (LHH) and Campbell (RHH) at 2B. Is that the best option for their growth or will that possibly stunt their development? Campbell was a below league average defender at 2B. A lot to juggle, but Bregman does provide a proven answer to 3B.
NYY could be a fit. Put Jazz in CF, Trent Grisham in LF, Bregman at 2B, then after McMahon’s contract after ’27 slide him back over to 3B. This also brings into the equation a guy like Bichette who is younger, that could play SS/2B and probably 3B.
SEA could be a fit from a Positional/Production Need. They need production at 3B, which was evident by the Eugenio Suárez trade at the deadline. They are also losing Jorge Polanco at 2B. I do not see a ton of prospects in their system to fill this need. Not a great fit from a Ballpark Standpoint. Seattle will always be a tough sign for FA hitters with their batters eye. It’s unlikely any top hitting free agent takes a short term deal at T-Mobile. So unless they are willing to go beyond what other teams are willing to do, I just do not see this one happening.
DET was rumored to be in talks with Bregman’s camp last year. I don’t see them as a great fit from a positional standpoint. Gleyber Torres accepted his QO, Colt Keith thru ’29 + club options, Zach McKinstry is under control thru ’27, and they have more INF prospects coming up in the system Kevin McGonigle, Trei Cruz. Not a great ballpark fit either.
CHC seem pretty content with Matt Shaw over at 3B. Dansby is at SS thru ’29, and Nico Hoerner at 2B will be a FA at the end of the season. There is not a ton of depth in the minor league system, Hayden Cantrelle was a good producer at AA. That said, I have to imagine the Cubs try to supplement Tucker’s production. I just don’t see Bregman as a fit in the INF this year, unless Shaw can play OF.
TEX has a production need. Josh Jung is at 3B signed thru ’28, and Marcus Semien is at 2B signed thru ’28. Not a great positional/contract fit. Also not a great Ballpark Fit.
LAA has a production need, and he could fit at 3B/2B. Rendon contract does come off the books next year, so I’m not ruling it out as a possibility. They have been willing to spend on position players.
PHI is middle of the pack in terms of 3B production. Bohm is their everyday 3B, and unless the the Phillies do a facelift to their infield I do not see this one happening. The only way I see this happening would be moving Turner to CF, Stott to SS and Bregman to 2B OR trading Bohm. To that end, one of the Phillies concerns in 2025 was their aging core Harper 33/Turner 32/Castellanos 33/ Schwarber 32/ Realmuto 34, so I don’t see adding a 32 year old Bregman as a way to rejuvenate this roster.
TOR could be a fit if they don’t land Bichette. I still think Bichette is priority to them. You could put Bregman at 3B and move Giménez to SS, Clement to 2B Barger in RF, Santander to LF.
Possible suiters: BOS/NYY/SEA/LAA/TOR
That’s all I got this week, come back on (12/1) for the next Free Agent Evaluation. There will be no Free Agent Evaluation (12/8), I will be attending Winter Meetings!!
CBA Review -
This is the section where I normally do my Book Reviews, but I am doing something new this offseason to align with my offseason goal to understand the CBA better. I am breaking the CBA down month-to-month by department/operations. This week we are reviewing February.
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2026 Free Agent Evaluations :
MLB Analysis:
- Phillies — Predicted how the Phillies might manage veteran workloads — such as placing Bryce Harper on the IL — and highlighted Otto Kemp as a likely call-up. You can read it here. Published May 28, 2025
- Orioles: Post-deadline recap with roster strategy analysis. Published July 31, 2025
Amateur Scouting Reports:
- Trevor Cohen (Rutgers) — identified as “Corbin Carroll-esque” (published March 29, 2025); later drafted 85th by San Francisco.
- James Quinn-Irons (GMU) — projected as a Grichuk-type profile (published April 27, 2025); later drafted 147th by Tampa Bay.
Professional Scouting Reports:
- Kyle Stowers (Norfolk) — “Stowers… can hit this caliber pitching especially with his approach consistently. I think he needs an opportunity with a big club to see if he can translate his first at bat approach to next level caliber pitching.”
- Cody Ponce — Scouting Report and evaluation
Free Agent Evaluations:
- Tyler O’Neill — ‘Predicted fit/value with Orioles; Contract Recommendation : the deal is 50% ($7.8 mil) guaranteed, which is what you are expecting him to play, then an additional ($1.56 Mil) for each additional 10% GP. $7.8 Guaranteed, $7.8 in games played Incentives or 2 years/$18.72 Mil.’ Published 11/17/24… Signed with Orioles on 12/7/2024 for 3 years/$49.5Mil… As of 8/2/25 O’Neill’s played in 37% of Orioles games and max opportunity to play in 57% games.
Free Agent Valuation Tool :
- Harrison Bader: Valuation tool: $6.3–8.5M; final deal $6.25M + $2M in incentives
- Kiké Hernández : Valuation tool: $5.4–$7.6M. final deal : $6.5M
