Score Predictions for the ACC Quarterfinals
The 2026 ACC Tournament shifts into high gear at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte as the top four seeds finally take the floor for a thrilling Thursday quarterfinal slate. After exciting early-round action, the double-bye teams enter the mix against Wednesday’s winners, setting up critical matchups, including top-seeded Duke facing Florida State and a high-stakes showdown between №4 seed UNC and Clemson. Let’s check out the score predictions for the day.
Jared Buck: Virginia 75, NC State 68
This prediction favors a lower-scoring affair based on Virginia’s disciplined defensive approach, which has consistently stifled opponents this season, allowing just 68.3 points per game. Despite NC State’s high-scoring capabilities, they struggled in their two previous matchups against Virginia this season, falling 76–61 and 90–61, indicating the Cavaliers’ ability to control the tempo and limit the Wolfpack’s offense. Virginia’s defensive experience and slower, more efficient style of play often prevail over higher-variance teams and I will count on that being the case.
Talmadge Williamson: Virginia 76, NC State 68
First game up on an action packed Thursday as we ramp up the four teams who got the double-bye. After another brutal day for me in my picks, I hope to rebound and get this one right. Virginia comes into this matchup having won both games vs NC State 76–61 and a 90–61 stomping a few weeks back. The biggest thing for this matchup is can the NC State high-scoring offense find success against arguably the best defensive team in the ACC. The Cavaliers also block the most shots in the ACC with 6.2 per game.
While NC State, hasn’t shown the ability in the first two to make enough plays to stay competitive, I think Will Wade will have these guys ready for the high-pressure situation of figuring out how to beat this Virginia team, who are 27–4 and are a team that Wade said that they were not capable of beating last time they played. However, with tournaments like these, bye teams who have been sitting tend to start out slugglish and play down to their opponent like the Wolfpack did yesterday in the first half.
I expect the same here from Virginia, but with their versatility and being led by Thijs De Ridder, I think they will pull away at the end, but the pesky Wolfpack are going to make them work for it.
Jared Buck: Miami 81, Louisville 77
Although Louisville narrowly defeated Miami just a few days ago, the Hurricanes are positioned to exploit their offensive efficiency. Miami leads the ACC in fast-break points and has superior shooting percentages. While Louisville’s 3-point shooting was key in their previous win, Miami’s ability to draw fouls, will allow them to control the tempo. The Hurricanes are likely to make necessary defensive adjustments to slow down Ryan Conwell, securing a close win to move on to Friday.
Talmadge Williamson: Miami 86, Louisville 79
The second game of ACC play brings us two teams who had an electric game to end the ACC regular season, as we saw Louisville win 92–89 and they hit a late three to win a wild one in Miami. This matchup will be dependent on guard play with both teams having experienced guards leading the way, as Ryan Conwell leads Louisville in this matchup vs. Tre Donaldson for the Hurricanes. Both were excellent in their previous matchup, but Conwell walked away with the win.
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This one will come down to which team can limit the offense of the other and which team can push to find the clutch shot. I’m going to go with Miami, who leads the conference in field goal percentage at 50.7 percent entering the tournament. I did previously mention that the team playing their first game seems to be sluggish to start, but I think Miami will survive the early challenge and keep it close enough for Donaldson and Malik Reneau to shine down the stretch and beat a Louisville team who will run out of gas late.
Jared Buck: Duke 85, Florida State 67
This is the one I’m ready for. People have been saying all week that this tournament is wide open now that Duke is down two starters, and there’s no doubt that Duke hears the noise, so how will they respond? The Blue Devils are expected to rely on their dominant defense and superior rebounding to overcome the Seminoles, who are coming off a hard-fought second-round win against Cal.
Although Florida State is playing with confidence, having won 11 of their last 14 games, their inconsistent shooting and lower-tier efficiency compared to Duke’s elite defense will likely be too much to overcome. Duke’s ability to control the paint and limit second-chance points should be enough to win comfortably in this quarterfinal matchup. Expect Duke to come out motivated after having to hear about how vulnerable they are all week.
Talmadge Williamson: Duke 81, Florida State 67
This game brings the two hottest teams in ACC play into a matchup that Duke won 91–87 very early on in ACC play. The biggest question that looms for this game is can Duke’s defense play the way they have for the last month after losing two great defensive players in Caleb Foster to a fractured foot and Patrick Ngongba to a foot sprain. The answer to that question should be a resounding yes, as Duke is one of the best (if not the best) defensive teams in the ACC and country.
They have guards who can fill those shoes in Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr, who have been stellar on defense and are capable of providing a much-needed spark on offense. The bigger names to watch will be Cameron Boozer, who took home just about every ACC award and Isaiah Evans vs. Chauncey Wiggins and Robert McCray.
Overall with the ability to stretch the floor with Evans, who had a career high 28 vs. Florida State in their first game, and Duke’s ability to defend, the Blue Devils should cruise to the ACC Semifinals and potentially set up a third matchup with the UNC Tar Heels.
Jared Buck: UNC 69, Clemson 61
Following their 67–63 win over Clemson earlier this month, the Tar Heels are positioned to handle the Tigers again in the tournament. Despite the loss of leading scorer Caleb Wilson, UNC has shown resilience, utilizing a balanced offensive attack led by players like Luka Bogavac and Seth Trimble. Clemson brings a strong, disciplined defensive style that keeps scores low, which explains why I have such a low-scoring game.
The Spectrum Center in Charlotte will likely provide a favorable crowd for North Carolina, giving them a slight edge to grind out a win late in a tense, defensive-oriented quarterfinal.
Talmadge Williamson: UNC 72, Clemson 61
This is where it’s hard to pick a side. UNC has experience with Veesaar and Trimble, but they have been a shell of themselves without Wilson. In the one matchup these teams had, UNC won 67–63 at home. As I stated in my Wake vs. Clemson prediction, Clemson comes in trying to find out who they are on the offensive side of the ball and are trying to figure out who is going to lead them. RJ Godfrey was that guy against UNC the first time, scoring 22. Welling also pitched in with 13.
UNC had bench production from Bogavac against the Tigers, as he scored a season high 20 points with six 3-pointers. Now, Bogavac has been inserted into the starting due to the loss of Wilson. Trimble struggled last time against Clemson’s defense, who ranks near the top in ACC play, allowing 66.2 points per game, but I think I have to lean on the leadership of Trimble, Veesaar, and the overall talent UNC has that they can hit clutch shots and simply out-rebound Clemson.
If Clemson continues to struggle from 3-point land like they did vs Wake (20 percent), UNC will capitalize on the rebounding and opportunities to push the pace. I’ll take UNC to set up a rematch with Duke.
