IKN and Sustainability: Measuring Progress and Consistency
I’ve long been interested in urban studies, particularly walkability and spatial equality in cities. You might have seen my 30-Day Mapping Challenge articles, where I used maps to visualize urban problems, with Jakarta as my main case study. I rarely discuss other Indonesian cities, even though many large cities here have distinct characteristics. Still, Jakarta, our highly urbanized capital, feels like the clearest example of urban challenges in Indonesia, from transportation and housing to spatial segregation. And in many ways, the problems faced by other Indonesian cities mirror Jakarta’s.
But what about a city still in its development phase? I’m talking about IKN, the new capital of Indonesia in Nusantara, East Kalimantan. This is something new for us. Most Indonesian cities weren’t planned from scratch; they grew naturally over centuries, often shaped by trade, harbors, or royal influence.
I’ve been following IKN from afar. Back in college, I studied it in depth — just a year or two ago, when construction began. At the time, the project was on the verge of starting, and debates swirled around it, both positive and negative. The plan stretches to 2045, making it one of Indonesia’s most ambitious long-term developments.
I still remember a government staff member giving a public lecture about it at my university. Honestly, I was skeptical, especially about building a city from forested land, which raises environmental concerns. There were also conflicts with local and Indigenous communities already living there.
What gave me some hope, though, was the promise that IKN would be a sustainable city — a “forest city”, a “smart city”, and a “sponge city.” For someone passionate about urban studies, these concepts are powerful. I hoped they wouldn’t just remain slogans.
Recently, curiosity got the better of me, so I checked IKN’s progress using Google Earth. The latest satellite imagery shows increasing land clearance, prompting me to reassess whether the city’s development is staying true to its sustainability goals.
I compared it to IKN’s official masterplan, the document lays out a clear vision for the city’s design and values, detailed in Appendix 2 of Law No. 3 of 2022.
Is IKN actually following the master plan written three years ago, or has there already been a significant deviation, despite the project being decades away from completion? What warning signs should we look out for?
This article is intended to evaluate the progress of IKN’s development after 2–3 years of construction
Brief Overview of IKN Current Condition
IKN was initiated by former President Joko Widodo, with development starting in 2022. It even hosted the Independence Day ceremony in 2024, alongside Jakarta. Now that a new government has taken office, I want to provide an overview, based on recent news, of what has been happening with IKN’s development under the current administration.
Before his inauguration, the new president, Prabowo Subianto, visited IKN and expressed his commitment to continuing the project, which is intended to become Indonesia’s new capital. However, since taking office, Prabowo appears to have shifted his focus to more populist programs (free nutritious meals, village cooperatives, and free community schools) alongside extensive diplomatic trips abroad.
This shift, combined with budget tightening and an economic slowdown (marked by low tax revenue and weak consumption), suggests that the current government may be less ambitious about IKN than its predecessor, prioritizing other pressing issues instead.
According to a Tempo journalism podcast, development in IKN is still ongoing, though at a slower pace. Current projects include flats for civil servants, housing for ministries, and various social and public facilities like mosques, hospitals, and parks. Some civil servants and one minister, Basuki Hadimuljono, have already moved there. Private businesses, including F&B outlets and hotels, have also begun operating.
The vice president has been assigned to be stationed in IKN, pending the completion of the vice-presidential palace. However, social issues have emerged, such as reports of prostitution targeting construction workers. On the investment front, attracting foreign funding has proven difficult, raising concerns about the financial sustainability of this mega-project, especially if the state budget is further strained.
It’s worth remembering that IKN is still only in the second phase of a long-term development plan scheduled for completion in 2045. Whether its future will be brighter or more troubled depends on the government’s strategy moving forward.
Physical Change and Loss of Forest
With a background in geography, I believe any development assessment should start with the physical conditions before moving to deeper analysis.
Like other large-scale projects in Indonesia, IKN is bustling with truckloads of construction materials and heavy machinery. What makes it unique is that the area was once a lush, homogenous production forest. Development has cleared large areas, whether for extracting materials (sand, soil, rock) or for building foundations. New roads have also been constructed to support project logistics.
Satellite imagery calculations show an apparent spike in 2010 and 2015, likely due to cloud cover or faulty data, so it’s excluded from the analysis. Focusing on recent years, the built-up area increased by about 52.3% between 2020 and 2025: rising from 2.83 million ha in 2020 to 4.31 million ha in 2025. While these figures are estimates derived from satellite imagery and spectral indices (MNDWI and NDBI), they indicate significant expansion.
Current development has caused extensive land clearing, shown in light green on the map. Surrounding IKN, much of the newly cleared land isn’t for housing but for mining or agriculture, represented in red and yellow, indicating when mining activity began (2010–2020). Previous settlements appear in purple and blue, revealing patterns of small villages (post-2005).
So far, development has not exceeded its targets, indicating that construction remains relatively small-scale and focused on government buildings. However, the widening of open land for urban expansion must remain consistent with the plan: IKN is designed as a forest city to ensure environmental resilience, with at least 50% green space in the KIPP (city center) and 75% in the KP IKN (broader development area).
Green spaces should serve nature (forests, ecosystems, and wildlife) as well as support food self-sufficiency through rooftop gardens, subsistence farming, ecotourism, and botanical gardens. The master plan also states that any land cleared for development, along with former mining and agricultural areas whose concessions have expired, must undergo rehabilitation and reforestation.
Assessing the Principle of IKN Development
Walkability and Transit-Oriented Development
I have high hopes that IKN can prioritize well-planned public transportation from the start, avoiding the chronic traffic congestion seen in many major Indonesian cities, especially Jakarta. Unfortunately, the automated tram used during last year’s Independence Day ceremony was sent back to China due to unprepared conditions, with no clear explanation of whether it will return.
In many Western European cities, trams work well as a city-center public transport option. Unlike trains or subways, trams run on the main road alongside other vehicles but in a dedicated lane. They also offer better city views and easier access (no need for elevators or long escalators) making them more inclusive for all.
On a positive note, many civil servants already use electric buses to travel between their flats and offices. However, the key is to plan an integrated public transport network from the outset , with complete routes across the city, offering speed, efficiency, and comfort that can outcompete private cars. Without this, IKN risks becoming another car-centric city.
Mobility planning should also connect directly with housing, workplaces, and economic centers. Public housing and business hubs must be located along transport routes, within the city center, to ensure that walking and transit-oriented development (TOD) are viable. A truly walkable, TOD-friendly city requires mixed-use buildings at its core.
Although major mobility infrastructure development has yet to begin, and roads are still dominated by construction vehicles, the masterplan targets are ambitious:
- 80% of trips via public transport or active mobility
- 10 minutes to reach key facilities and transport hubs
Meeting these goals will be critical to IKN’s long-term livability and sustainability.
Housing Affordability
Housing is the most important aspect of building a city. In IKN’s current development, several flats have been built for civil servants, along with some landed houses for ministers. This is a promising start, prioritizing public housing, especially vertical, makes city space more compact and efficient.
However, several concerns need attention. Local and indigenous residents working in IKN must also be provided with housing — whether flats like civil servants or culturally appropriate landed kampong houses. If this does not happen, I fear spatial segregation, as seen in Jakarta, could be repeated in IKN: gated communities for ministers and high-ranking officials, vertical public housing for civil servants, and housing for the general public left to private developers (often unaffordable) or self-built in scattered settlements — leading to the growth of new slums.
According to the master plan, two housing targets must be closely monitored:
- Access to essential infrastructure is supported by financial commitments to ensure quality housing for all citizens.
- Adequate, safe, and affordable housing following a balanced 1:2:3 ratio for luxury, middle-class, and modest units.
For the second target to succeed, the government must create and enforce regulations to maintain this ratio, with the majority of housing units dedicated to the modest category. Private developers should be required to contribute in line with these regulations.
A payment model similar to Singapore’s HDB system, where a portion of wages is automatically allocated toward home installments, could also be considered to make housing more affordable and accessible.
Third Spaces and Social Facilities
With IKN’s commitment to allocating half of its area as green space, I hope this will strengthen social cohesion and improve public well-being through the creation of many third places such as parks, jogging tracks, and libraries. The image above shows the development of a jogging track near government buildings, along with several green and blue areas designed as community spaces
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According to Google Maps, several parks are being built: Teras Kota IKN by Plataran, Memorial Park IKN, and Taman Kusuma Bangsa. The city also has several embung (reservoirs) serving as blue water bodies. Three hospitals are being built: one by the government (Nusantara Hospital) and two by private entities (Mayapada and Hermina Hospital). For places of worship, only the Al-Madinah Grand Mosque has been under construction.
Private developers have also begun investing in facilities such as Swissotel Nusantara and Qubika Boutique Hotel Nusantara. There are two Indomaret convenience stores with its Point Coffee. However, facilities built by small and medium enterprises (UMKM) are still limited, only a few seen: D’Penyetz, Alam Lestari, and RM Buana.
Private sector involvement is welcome, but it is essential that development aligns with these key targets from the masterplan:
- 100% of residents should have access to recreational green spaces within 10 minutes.
- 100% of residents should have access to social/community services within 10 minutes.
- 100% of public spaces must follow principles of universal accessibility, local wisdom, gender-responsive, and inclusive design.
For the third target, the government must establish clear parameters and regulations to ensure that all social facilities meet these principles. Without measurable indicators, such targets risk becoming symbolic rather than actionable.
It is equally important to integrate local communities into IKN’s economic growth. For example, by allocating dedicated spaces for UMKM and ensuring that they are not sidelined by new urban migrants from Jakarta. This approach will help prevent social alienation and foster a more inclusive city.
Water and Waste Management
The key city utilities: electricity, water, and waste treatment plants, are currently under construction, as shown in the image above.
For utilities, water and waste management are especially important. All installations should be organized neatly, ideally placed underground (e.g., electricity cables, internet lines, and others) to avoid visual clutter and improve safety.
Sustainable water production, especially clean and safe drinking water, must be planned from the beginning. Many investigative reports have shown that the water supply is a chronic problem in some areas, with residents forced to buy water from elsewhere because local sources are undrinkable.
If IKN develops hydroelectric power for sustainable electricity, the use of rivers must be carefully managed so it does not reduce water availability for consumption — particularly in Kalimantan, where high temperatures and prolonged droughts (such as during El Niño) can occur more intensely.
IKN must also avoid repeating Jakarta’s waste management problem of open dumping, which is not only harmful to the environment but also poses serious long-term health risks.
The government has set ambitious targets:
- 60% of all waste will be recycled by 2045
- 100% of wastewater treated by 2035
- Renewable energy capacity to meet 100% of IKN’s electricity needs
- Net-zero emissions by 2045 across the 256,000-hectare area
While some of these goals may be overly optimistic, progress must be monitored to ensure they remain on track. Success should not be measured only by numbers, but also by quality, ensuring everyone benefits from the development and conducting thorough risk assessments. For example, while solar farms are renewable, clearing forests to install them could cause environmental harm, so site selection must be approached cautiously.
The Jargon: Smart, Forest, and Sponge City(?)
The IKN master plan adopts three main principles: Forest City, Sponge City, and Smart City. While these concepts sound ambitious, their real value depends on how faithfully they are implemented on the ground.
- Forest City
According to the master plan, IKN is located within and surrounded by forests rich in biodiversity. The commitment is to preserve and restore these forests, not simply to create parks or decorative green spaces, but to maintain functioning ecosystems with diverse tree species, natural water catchment areas, and habitats that support biodiversity.
However, construction activities have already led to large-scale tree cutting and extensive excavating the soil for building materials. I am less optimistic that all altered landscapes can be fully restored to their original forest condition. Continuous public monitoring will be essential to ensure the forest city principle is not undermined.
Equally important is involving indigenous and long-standing local communities, who have deep ecological knowledge of the area. Without their participation, forest management risks becoming a top-down, Jakarta-centric approach that ignores local wisdom.
The heavy construction activities and wide road for truck loading that cutting forest must be assessed cautiously, as they can affect the animal migration passages and potentially cause significant biodiversity loss due to the noise of construction. Biodiversity needs to be inventoried, so the claim of maintaining biodiversity after the project finishes is valid.
2. Sponge City
The sponge city concept aims to create urban reservoirs to capture stormwater and reduce flooding risk. In IKN, several reservoirs have been built near government buildings, designed to function as both water catchment areas and public recreational spaces.
For the system to work effectively, water circulation must be ensured:
- Small pipes should channel runoff from multiple areas into reservoirs.
- Reservoirs should be interconnected and linked to main rivers to prevent overflow during heavy rain.
This model has been implemented successfully in several Chinese cities, but to avoid it becoming just a slogan, IKN must adapt best practices to local conditions through comparative studies and careful engineering.
3. Smart City
Government officials often highlight “smart city” features as a source of pride, sometimes emphasizing visible technology like streetlight poles with digital screens. However, a true smart city is not defined by gadgets, but by how technology and data are used to manage the city efficiently and inclusively.
A functional smart city should:
- Integrate data to optimize utilities such as water and electricity.
- Provide accessible channels for public feedback and complaints.
- Foster collaboration between residents and the government in city development.
Digital tools are only the means. What matters is whether they improve resource efficiency, enhance governance, and encourage civic participation. Because smart city tools require high budgets and strong digital literacy, implementation must be carefully managed to avoid expensive but underused systems.
Is IKN Still a Promising and Achievable Development for Indonesia?
The new capital city, IKN, is currently in its Phase 2 of development (2025–2029) according to the master plan.
By now, many civil servants, police officers, and military personnel should have been relocated there for ministries and governmental institutions, with related buildings under construction.
This phase has also been targeted at increasing diversity as businessmen and workers begin to settle, kickstarting economic growth. Academic research and activities by college students are also underway, while the local communities remain a crucial part of IKN’s fabric.
A key target in this phase is the completion of land claims. However, in previous years, there have been numerous reports of locals receiving inadequate compensation for their land or being pushed to relocate far from the IKN area. Such practices must be prevented moving forward, as local residents should retain their rights and participation in the city’s development, rather than being displaced.
With government budgets tightening amid economic downturns, Phase 2 faces significant funding challenges. Essential infrastructure such as airports, the Sepaku reservoir, Sepaku river intake, water installations, city management utilities, and secondary and tertiary service amenities all require investment. Government buildings for administrative functions also demand substantial funding.
The question remains: is this ambitious development achievable under these financial constraints? Foreign investment, which could provide much-needed capital, has yet to materialize due to lingering trust and confidence issues. Meanwhile, public budgets are already strained with trillions in deficits.
The best approach might be for the government to first establish IKN as an attractive and promising place for investment by completing the foundational developments. Particularly, in primary infrastructure such as transportation, markets, and bureaucracy. The city’s uniqueness as a sustainable urban model should be emphasized as a key value proposition compared to other Indonesian cities. Social aspects like encouraging public participation are also non-negotiable, as business needs to be market-driven.
Ultimately, my hope is that the massive public investment will not be wasted and we’ll see a well-planned city built with sustainability at its core.
