Why the Drake Equation Is the Greatest Pitfall in Science Popularization: Everything About It Is Wrong

Practically everyone knows it: the Drake Equation. It represents a mathematical formula used to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our Milky Way. As such, it gets cited constantly. But the truth is, almost everything about it is fundamentally flawed, and very few things have done as much damage to science and our musings about alien life as this particular formula.

Where are they? Hard to say, but Drake equation won´t answer. Picture: IRAM-gre, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

What Exactly Is the Drake Equation?

In November 1961, when American astronomer Frank Drake gathered a handful of scientists at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, he faced a pragmatic task: providing a framework, or a springboard for discussion, for the very first conference on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (the famous SETI). Frank Drake sketched seven parameters on a chalkboard, and the iconic equation was born.

But that is exactly where it should have ended. The discussion was meant to begin, and the formula was meant to be erased. Unfortunately, that never happened. Ever since, the general public, and regrettably, more than a few science popularizers, have looked up to it as an exact tool that will, sooner or later, reveal the precise number of alien civilizations. This is sheer…