2016–17 Fighting Illini Preview — How Illinois Can Get Back to the Dance
John Groce must figure out the answer or athletic director Josh Whitman will face a tough decision
It’s been three straight years without the name “Illinois” on our brackets. We have not been given the opportunity to foolishly convince ourselves maybe there is a chance they can sneak into the Sweet 16. Fans have been left to root for the Middle Tennessee States or Mercers of the tournament; the Cinderella teams we would have changed places with in a moment.
No, it’s been a bad stretch. Possibly an even worse stretch when we were at least sitting through the Selection Show to find out our, usually unfortunate, fate. Other than helping us fill out our brackets, Doug Gottlieb et al. hasn’t been worth turning on our televisions on that Sunday in March.
But, maybe this is the year; the year it all changes. This is a senior-laden crew. Heck, it’s a super-senior-laden crew with Tracy Abrams and Mike Thorne both closer to 30 than they are in age to Te’Jon Lucas (hey, it’s at least close).
Anything would be better than last year. There were injuries; oh, so many injuries. There were suspensions; multiple players made decisions they wish they could take back. And there were crushing losses; we’re not going through the list again, but the schedule went far worse than anyone could have anticipated.
It’s all in the past now. I’m writing this on Signing Day; a day expected to be filled with joy although a lack of a certain recruit putting pen to paper has all fans re-running nightmares of being “left at the alter”. But, the Illini do have the #8 class in the nation — barring certain circumstances — and Coach Groce deserves high marks for that achievement.
I did not write much last season. I had my first child, a daughter, about a month before the season began. By the time I got to the point where I could even debate doing a deep dive on the team, the bubble had already been burst. It was a lost year on the basketball court, and in turn, a lost year at BloggingIllini.com.
My few posts revolved around the future of John Groce. And more succinctly, requesting his future would no longer be in Urbana-Champaign. When the Kendrick Nunn news surfaced after the season, and yet another of Groce’s recruits was handed a suspension, it was proverbially my last straw.
But, Groce remains. And the biggest reason he does has to be tied to his 2017 recruiting class. However, to continue the rebuilding of this program, he will have to continue to put together future strong classes.
A key factor in making that possible will be winning. Incoming recruits want to be on a team that wins. They want to be on a team playing in March. They want to be on a team cutting down nets.
Groce still has his job. He wants to be coaching those recruits next season. But if the Illini miss the tournament again — for the fourth straight year — continuing to build on the longest drought in school history, will Whitman be able to bring him back for 2017–18? The recruits signed to play for Groce, so any change at the head coach position could cost some recruits.
The time is now. Whitman started #WeWillWin when he got the AD job. The excuses need to stop. The Illini need to be dancing in March.
The Roster
Point guards: Tracy Abrams, Jaylon Tate, Te’Jon Lucas
The fans have been craving the return of Abrams for multiple years now. In defense of Groce, he thought he would have his upperclassman point guard the last two seasons only to see him lost to injury…twice. The team didn’t recover either season.
But this year, not only is Abrams ready to begin the season (fingers crossed), but there is actually some depth behind him. Lucas is the only member of the 2016 recruiting class, but this is the first highly-touted point guard Groce has had at the University of Illinois.
It may take an injury to Abrams for Lucas to receive a ton of playing time, and that’s ok. As a freshman, he should have plenty of time to acclimate to the college game. Learning behind Abrams should be good experience, it will be Lucas’s team to lead next season.
As for Tate: he has not had a great tenure at U of I. However, he can take care of the ball, play passable defense, and hit a free throw in crunch time. Tate should not see a ton of playing time this season, but don’t be surprised if he is a key player off the bench for a win or two this season.
Shooting guards: Jalen Coleman-Lands, DJ Williams, Aaron Jordan, Alex Austin, Clayton Jones
Again: depth. Coleman-Lands missed offsesason time for the second straight year, but he will be ready to go for the season opener. JCL was a bright spot last season in his freshman year and the sky is the limit for a sophomore leap.
Williams and Jordan were forced into playing time last season due to injury, and hopefully the time was priceless. Both have plenty of room to grow, but to run Groce’s offense, there needs to be several guards ready to participate.
Austin and Jones should be back-of-the-bench guys. Hopefully we’ll be seeing them towards the end of the game Friday and maybe a few other non-con games. If it’s more than those games, there is a problem.
Forwards: Malcolm Hill, Michael Finke, Leron Black (suspended for first six games), Kipper Nichols (eligible in January), Cameron Liss
The depth will not be there at the beginning of the season, but once the team is back to full strength, this will be another area where the team can excel.
It will be a shame — a damn shame — if Malcolm Hill spends four years in an Illini uniform and doesn’t get a chance to play in a single NCAA tournament game. This needs to happen for one of the best players to put on the orange and blue.
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Finke was another player forced into action last season, and action at center instead of “stretch four” where he belongs. The 6'10" Finke shot 36.7 percent last season from deep and, if given space, can be a huge mismatch for opposing defenses.
Black was one of my favorite players his freshman year, but his off-the-court incident has us all feeling a little sour on the energetic man-child. Black should make his return for a three-game stretch of Florida State (pending other matchups), North Carolina State, and VCU; perhaps the most important segment of the schedule. Hope he’s keeping in shape.
Nichols is an interesting piece as he will have to sit out the first semester, but should be able to return early on in Big Ten season.
Cameron Liss will hopefully be the “victory cigar” on a few nice wins this season.
Centers: Maverick Morgan and Mike Thorne Jr.
Somewhat surprisingly, the NCAA granted Thorne a sixth year of eligibility and the Illini need to take advantage of the generosity.
Morgan developed a lot last season, which was great to see after looking like a lost cause his first two seasons.
Both players need to be impact players on defense. The basket protection was a glaring hole last season.
Once the forwards get back to full strength, expect some small-ball lineups with Finke or Black at the center position.
The Schedule
A quick glance at the beginning of the schedule already makes fans feel more comfortable than last season. Also, keep in mind last year the team had to begin their season in Springfield, away from campus. This year, each home game will be played at the State Farm Center. In fact, throughout the entire non-conference schedule, the Illini will not face a *true* road game.
With a weaker schedule than last season and no tough road tests, it makes each game take on more importance. The team — as always — can not afford a loss to a bottom-ranked team.
The first four contests should be no-contests; these teams aren’t as good as North Florida or Chattanooga (sorry; I said I wasn’t going to bring them up). Big wins should be expected in all.
Winthrop is a tricky one. They went 23–5 last year but did lose one of their best players to graduation. However, no matter what their record ends up as, if you lose this game, it will be the “Bad Loss” that will stain the team résumé for the rest of the season.
The next four will show the true measure of this season’s squad. If they are able to beat Huggy Bear’s Mountaineers, it’s a very strong possibility this stretch will feature four 2017 tournament teams in a row. With it comes four chances (still three if they are unable to beat West Virginia) to get one of those “Good Wins” on the résumé. Three of the four will be on neutral floors, with NC State coming to the State Farm Center as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
The final four of the non-con schedule should be more tallies in the win column, but there is a sneaky good BYU team as the second to last matchup. It’s a “neutral” site since it’s away from campus, but the game will be played in Chicago at the United Center. Even though this will be played in front of a crowd full of orange, the UC has been a house of horrors over the last decade for the Illini. Don’t let that one sneak up on you.
An 11–2 non-conference schedule should be the goal. Yes, there may be as many as six top-60 opponents, but if they have eleven wins headed into the Big Ten slate, the team should be feeling confident.
I like to separate the conference schedule into thirds and during the season I’ll be writing previews for segments in such splits. For today’s purposes, I’ll run it down in a similar fashion.
The conference schedule starts tough. Six top-50 teams, three on the road, and Maryland twice. The Michigan-Maryland back-to-back looks like, on paper, the most winnable matchups of the first six. Even though those two games will be played in Champaign, they occur during winter break, meaning a portion of the Orange Krush will be at home for the holidays. A 1–5 stretch wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it further proves why eleven wins may be necessary in the non-con.
The second third of the season eases up a bit, yet still remains challenging. Home games against Iowa and Minnesota are must-wins, but a road win or three during this stretch may be necessary. Welcoming Wisconsin to the State Farm with an upset would be huge, but it’s difficult to see anything better than 4–2 in this segment.
Let’s say the team is 16–9 at this point. It’s always difficult to make the tournament with 20 or less wins. Winning five out of the last six may be what the season comes down to. Michigan State is the only terrifying matchup, but the team will need road wins at Iowa and Nebraska (and obviously Rutgers) to get above 20 wins.
Even if you’re wearing the orangest-shaded glasses, the best case scenario for the Illini is another season riding on the bubble. The Big Ten isn’t incredibly deep this season, but the top is as strong as usual, and Illinois still remains at least one level below.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say they will be able to come out on the right side of the bubble this season. The team will stay healthy, stay out of trouble, and Malcolm Hill has a First Team All-Big Ten season. Abrams will be the cog at point guard to make the machine work. Thorne will provide a force down low the Illini team hasn’t seen in a decade.
Call me crazy. I know I’m putting myself out on a limb with this team for the millionth time. KenPom.com (oh how I missed thee) has the Illini as their 70th ranked team; a far cry from the top-40 level needed to even sniff the tournament.
They will need to surprise. The game with West Virginia looms as a huge opportunity to make their mark. The offense is going to look great the first four games, but Huggins’ defense will be an entirely different animal. If they can earn a date with Florida State, giving them an opportunity to win the NIT Season Tip-off, it will bring back memories of 2012 when Brandon Paul helped win the Maui Invitational.
That season culminated in an NCAA Tournament bid. The last time the Illini were in the Tournament. Let’s get back there. It’s been too long.
