Illinois @ Iowa
- Outside looking in –
70th place is not a great place to be in a contest where the top 68 get rewarded. This is where Joe Lunardi currently has the Illini in his latest Bracketology. It certainly could be worse and most experts believe that if the Illini win out, they will still be in a good position to make the “big dance”. The game at Iowa did not provide much confidence that they will be able to do that. After winning four straight, the Illini have dropped three in a row. It’s unfortunate that my prediction for these final three have been correct, but I also have them winning the next three and earning a bid. Ultimately, the W or L is all that matters, but it’s the way that these outcomes occurred that have me concerned. It all starts with my favorite target.
Ahmad Starks
Starks shot 7/15, 5/9 from 3 and scored 19 of the team’s 60 points — if you look at those numbers alone, you come away with the idea that Starks had a good game and was the only reason the Illini were even close. That is Exhibit A on why the game needs to be watched and never can be analyzed with numbers alone. The six turnovers were only the tip of the iceberg on how much of a liability Starks was. He continuously was dribbling into hedges, shooting contested shots, and not setting up his teammates at all. It can oddly be a bad thing when Starks hits a shot — because you know the next time down he wants to shoot again. With that added to his defensive shortages, pun certainly intended, there is no way that Starks came away as a net positive. The Illini were forced to play zone most of the game which takes away certain strengths as well.
When Jaylon Tate was announced out with illness, my hopes instantly dropped. The fact that Starks played 39 minutes of point guard and didn’t get an assist is terrible. I am curious how a coaching staff would even allow this to be a possibility. Depending on when they determined that it may have been a possibility that Tate would miss the game, other schemes should have been created. I brought this point up on Twitter and was instantly shot down by many that “Starks is all Groce had for this game”. No! That’s not true. I am not suggesting that Mike LaTulip should have played major minutes (even though the coaches were essentially forced to play him after Starks was embarrassed by the dunk that’s in the feature image). Starks is a good shooter — he’d be great, if he had any sort of shot selection intelligence. He found a role on this team while Rayvonte Rice (5–13, 20 points, 9 rebounds) and Aaron Cosby were out. The role was often as the 2 guard next to Tate and allowed him to play off the ball. With Tate on the bench under the weather, that gameplan didn’t have to change.
Jalen Rose says on almost every one of his podcasts “Positions in basketball were created for the novice to follow the game”. Yes, Starks was our only usual point guard available yesterday according to the roster. That does not mean that #3 has to have the ball in his hands every single play and dribble it up the court. During the past infamous Heat regime, Mario Chalmers was the starting “point guard”. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade very commonly dribbled the ball up the floor and almost 100% of the designed plays went through one of them — not Chalmers. It’s a concern that our coaching staff has watched Starks play all season and they thought it was a good idea to have Starks handle the ball for 39 minutes. I’m not familiar of Starks past on Oregon State, but playing point guard in the Big Ten this year is not an easy task. I’m a “blame the player” type of person — and there is blame to place on Starks as well. But fool me once, shame on you. Fool me ten times, shame on the coaching staff for not finding another solution.
I want to call out one portion of the game that exemplifies my argument. Early in the second half, Rice had a few possessions where he took control. These occurred due to plays in transition, so I am not giving the coaches credit for acknowledging the problem. Rice had made a nice 15 footer then came down and drove the lane, missed twice, gathered both rebounds and eventually put the ball in the basket. The Illini took the lead with 14:14 remaining in the game. On the next possession, Austin Colbert made an amazing block of an Olaseni Dunk. Starks grabbed the rebound, ran down the court, and shot his patented “long 2” with 29 seconds left on the shot clock. Iowa went on an 11–3 run after that and the Illini never got back within five.
The Rayvonte Rice phenomenon
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Malcolm Hill — four games before Rice’s return — 25–57 (44%), 10–22 from 3, 18 rebounds, 6 assists, 79 points.
Malcolm Hill — four games since Rice’s return — 15–46 (33%), 4–14 from 3, 12 rebounds, 1 assist, 45 points.
Kendrick Nunn — four games before Rice’s return — 21–59 (36%), 8–23 from 3, 14 rebounds, 12 assists, 63 points.
Kendrick Nunn — four games since Rice’s return — 13–43 (30%), 5–21 from 3, 15 rebounds, 8 assists, 42 points.
The numbers above are strange — however they do not mean that the team is better without Rice, they’re just strange. The 1–3 record since he has returned is also strange, especially because the one win took a miraculous comeback over Michigan. On Wednesday, Rice was the best player on the floor for the Illini (Aaron White was the best player on the floor period, and some of that was against Rice; White dominated Hill on the defensive end). He was great with the ball and I didn’t come away with the idea that he was hogging it. He only had one assist but was fairly efficient, getting to the line ten times as well. Rice isn’t the problem, but something is occurring. Hill has had two tough matchups the last two games but that’s hardly an excuse. He needs to continue to be aggressive. The shots just simply aren’t falling for Nunn. He was more active Wednesday than he was Sunday however, getting to the glass and providing two steals.
The return of a healthy Tate may put this team back in shape. This is as full of a lineup as the Illini have had this season but they have missed a true point guard — and I am referring to the idea of one as much as the player. Some excuses can be given to the staff as they were counting on Abrams going into this year, but they have to continue to be flexible. There are some glaring weaknesses happening with the team right now and adjustments need to occur as soon as possible.
Other thoughts
- The Illini need to get their adjustments in now because their next opponent is the hottest team in the conference. Northwestern has won four in a row and just took out Indiana. The bracket thoughts right now are if we win at Purdue, we’re in. That is a moot point if they aren’t able to win these two at home. Nebraska is senior night and Deron Williams bobblehead night. They aren’t losing that game. The Northwestern game has suddenly become scary. It should be fairly winnable but the season is over, outside an amazing BTT run to a championship, if this game isn’t won. Sooner than later, indeed.
- Austin Colbert (1/2, 2 points, 7 rebounds) was arguably the second-most successful Illini on the court. In the ever-changing rotation in the front court, Colbert has become more trusted than Leron Black, who continues to be a foul machine.
Northwestern would love nothing more than to take us out of postseason play after we did it to their football team. Hopefully Tate is getting his fluids and rest and we will have as real of a point guard as there is on this roster out there. We are Chicago’s Big Ten Team. I-L-L!
