Illinois vs Michigan State
- Script flipper –
Part of my personal “blogger mindset” is to not be over-emotional. I promised passion in my author biography, but like most, I tend to overreact during a game. For this reason, I have made it a point to always give myself at least a night’s sleep before writing a game review. I understand that in 2015, urgency is important in the writing world; it’s important being first. I sacrifice that to try to provide a more balanced approach. This post will be a bit different. It’s been 15 hours since the end of the game and I haven’t cooled down yet. I predicted that we would lose this game, but the way it happened really bothered me. I don’t think this particular outcome is what will cost the Illini the tournament. I’m worried about the future, both this year’s, next and possibly beyond.
This is the roster
Part of the mystique about writing about this year’s Illini team has been waiting for the future. The non-conference schedule went roughly as expected, but our transfers were in a slump. We imagined how good this team would be if they could hit their shots. We went nine games without Rayvonte Rice (3/12, 15 points), but if we could just survive until he got back, we were golden. Aaron Cosby got hurt, then suspended, but once he came back, he would provide the depth we would desperately need. Leron Black (2/2, 4 points, 4 rebounds in 13 minutes) had his breakout game against Purdue and every fan was dreaming of him becoming a force for the remainder of the season. There is no more of that. This is the roster we are getting for the rest of the year. There are no injuries to heal or suspensions to end. We roughly know what we are getting from any big man we put in or beside Nnanna Egwu (1/5, 3 points 4 rebounds). There is no more “just wait until…” and after watching Sunday night’s game, that is a scary thought.
Malcolm Hill has no assists since Rayvonte Rice returned to the team.
The point guards
News broke right before the game that Jaylon Tate (0/5, 2 points, 0 assists, 0 TO) had the flu and was not holding down any food. The starters were announced very late, and Tate’s availability almost certainly was the reason. He was only able to play eight minutes in the first half, but that also could be attributed to foul trouble. Enter Ahmad Starks (2/6, 5 points, 0 assists, 1 TO). Unless he is shooting from the left elbow-extended, off a pass, I have zero confidence in him shooting. The big issue is there is nowhere else to go with this team, as constructed. If you notice the stat line, neither one of our point guards had an assist in this game. With neither being a good shooter, for completely different reasons, they are liabilities. It puts a team so far behind if they do not have a point guard that can contribute. It’s this, above all else, that has me worried about our future. I took some time to read through some of my previous articles this morning and after the Rutgers game, I wrote that we had a real Big Ten Point guard. Tate had put together five straight games with 5+ assists. His court vision had made huge strides which had to be strengthening his confidence. Since then, his assist totals — 2, 2, 1, and a goose egg. He has hit the proverbial wall and it’s almost a necessity that he finds it this week for our tournament chances. Without that, we’re stuck with Starks, and his complete lack of a memory. The stretch that sticks in my mind was at around the 12 minute mark, Black had hit a pretty jumper to cut the deficit to four. Trice missed the answer and the Illini headed down the court looking to cut the lead to one possession. Starks simply just lost the ball, leading to a Trice breakaway and forcing Rice to foul him. The very next possession — Starks dribbles around and shoots a contested three. Coach Groce sat him shortly after, but he was stuck between a rock and hard place all game.
Coach Groce
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With the lineup not changing and the limits at point guard, there are only so many options for Coach Groce. Beyond this season, he will have Tracy Abrams, but he doesn’t exactly open up too many doors. It’s pertinent that he is able to recruit a real point guard and that should be as much of a focus as he can currently afford. There were more issues Sunday night than just the point guard position. With the conclusion to the Cosby situation, the depth is a certain issue. However, I believe there was still little excuse to play four players over eighteen minutes in the second half. In hindsight, maybe Kendrick Nunn’s (2/10, 7 points) two 3-point chances have a little more lift if he gets a two minute breather during the half. Black did not make it easy receiving four fouls, but let him foul out. He matches up nice against the Spartans. I understand he was caught up in the game, but the energy looked so low from the players on the court. Austin Colbert has earned a minute or two per half and Coach Groce kept him tied to the bench in the second. I have pointed out as much as anyone that Coach Groce’s teams have gotten better in February and March, regardless of which team he is coaching. That team last night was not an improvement of the team that played in East Lansing. Michigan State played worse than they did two weeks ago, and then gave a game back that they had wrapped up. This team was not ready to accept it.
Other thoughts
- Branden Dawson was the best player on the court Sunday (those blocks, wow) and proved that from the first possession. Malcolm Hill (5–11, 17 points) was abused all night on defense.
- We saw some in-team fighting, for what I can remember, the first time this season. I saw Egwu get in Hill’s face after not running after a loose ball. It also looked like Nunn had some words for Black after his fourth foul.
- Forcing 11 turnovers and shooting eight more free throws than an opponent is a recipe for a victory. 2–16 from 3-land is something that can spoil it.
- The State Farm crowd sounded great. Other than hitting that bird-sounding woman with a beer bottle, they did all they could.
Next opponent — @ Iowa 2/25 (Wednesday) 8:00 PM
Bubble watch
The latest ESPN Bracketology still keeps us in the field, but we are back in the “play-in” game. Almost every statistical breakdown has us between 55th-60th (KenPom: 60, RPI: 57, BPI: 55, SOS: 58) which is too low for comfort. Here are some key games for the bubble teams around us. This weekend had a lot of bubble teams losing, which has kept us afloat. One way or the other, we will take it.
- Oregon (remember them?) — @ Cal, Wednesday — @ Stanford, Sunday
- UCLA — Washington, Wednesday — Washington State, Sunday
- NC State — @ UNC, Tuesday — @ BC, Saturday
- Purdue — Rutgers, Thursday — @ OSU, Sunday
- LSU — @ Auburn, Tuesday — Ole Miss, Saturday
- Cincinnati — UCF, Wednesday — @ Tulane Saturday
- Temple — Houston, Thursday
Hopefully the team quickly heals before Wednesday (it certainly looked like more than just Tate had the flu). A win at Iowa, at the least, should move us in front of them. I-L-L!
