Illinois vs Rutgers
- Under the microscope –
I have done my best with this blog to stay as even-keeled as possible. Part of the reason why I include the “other things — negative” and “other things — positive” is to show both sides of the equation. This team has allowed plenty of material all season in both areas. A game at home against Rutgers makes it difficult to not add a grain of salt to every positive thought. Despite injuries, suspensions and a seven-man rotation, this was looked at as a must win by everyone. After going back and forth for the first few minutes, Illinois ended the half with an 8–0 run to increase the lead to 11. They pushed the lead to 17 by the first media timeout of the second half, and twitter was abuzz on getting the uniformed manager onto the court.
Malcolm Hill (6/15, 15 points) had a great first half and Kendrick Nunn (7/15, 25 points) was amazing all game. There is very little to complain about either of them and it’s great to see that both of them have made this their team. As for the other six players that saw the court, it’s easy to criticize at least a part of their game. Illinois won (and covered), they’re back at .500 in conference play, and I am as happy as anyone. A game against a weak opponent makes it easier to complain about a lack of perfection. The fact that the starters had to come back in with three minutes left in a game that the team was up 17 in the second half is worrisome.
Tate and Starks
The debate when Tracy Abrams went down with injury was who would be able to facilitate the Illini offense. Ahmad Starks (4/8, 13 points) was a shooting guard that had decent handles, but is clearly more of a shooter than an all-around point guard. Jaylon Tate (1/2, 3 points, 6 assists, 1 TO) had only played a few minutes in Big Ten play and seemed timid and was unproven. The fact that Tate has grown into a real, legit, Big Ten point guard is something that has me as excited as anything else that this team has gone through this year. Yes, I am well aware that he doesn’t shoot, which is a problem (that airball…wow). However, it seems like he is always good for an and-1 layup each game. He rarely has any turnovers and he is becoming so adept with his court vision.
Ahmad Starks is not a point guard. I know I am always harping on Starks, but I cringe whenever he is touching the ball. Unless he is receiving the ball on a pass from the left wing, which does seem to be his spot, I do not want to see him shooting. The biggest reason that this game got within eight in the waning minutes was the fact that Tate got in foul trouble and had to be sat for Starks. It’s an easy stat to pick out, but Tate was a +21 and Starks was a -8 on Tuesday. When Starks launched that 3 after the lead had decreased to eight (at the 4:01 mark), I yelled at the TV. Naturally, it went in, but that’s not the point. The fact that he felt the need to come down the court the next possession and launch another jumper shows the error of his ways. If you asked Starks who is the best player on the court, I would guess that he would say himself. I just do not want the waning minutes of a tournament game (yep, wishful thinking!) to ever have to come down to Starks with the ball. I just know who will be taking that shot.
Crystal Ball
I am going to go out on a limb and make a crazy prediction. I think Saturday in East Lansing we will see Rayvonte Rice and Aaron Cosby in their jerseys. I’ll double down on the bet and say those jerseys will be blue. The question will be what to do with the lineup. Rice hasn’t played since January 3rd, a span of seven games. Cosby has been out four games. The team has gone 3–1 without both with a consistent lineup of Tate, Nunn, Hill, Black, and Egwu. I am guessing that Rice will start in place of Black. The Illini will get a bit smaller, but the defense still gets better with that switch. It will be nice to have the flexibility that if Coach Groce does want to go big, Leron Black (5/6, 12 points) will be ready to come in off the bench. If Nnanna Egwu (0/1, 5 rebounds) does get in foul trouble (when, not if), I can see Black getting some play at the 5. Even with Austin Colbert playing some good minutes lately (3 rebounds), if there is a decision between Colbert, Morgan, or Black, I am comfortable with giving up a few inches for better all-around defense. Cosby should be the first wing off the bench and can spell Nunn or Rice (he is capable at the 2 or 3). Where does this leave Starks? Exactly where I would like him to be. I am hoping that Starks becomes a “break glass if necessary” type player. He is not important to the future, being a senior, and I don’t believe he offers much to the present. He will still remain the backup point guard, but I am hoping that is only in foul trouble situations. If we are down 15 in the first half in Madison, sure, bring him in for perhaps a “microwave” performance. It will be truly interesting to see if the returning players can mold into the rotation with ease. The coaching staff has done such a great job with the limited options given to them. It may be just as difficult to manage a lineup with multiple choices.
Other thoughts — negative
- There was only one other player with a negative P/M ratio — Maverick Morgan. Inconsistency becomes the issue at hand as he was not able to build off two solid performances.
- I had a heated debate postgame on twitter (@BloggingIllini) regarding Egwu and his involvement on the offense. The offense was outstanding for the majority of the game but against better opponents we need more than one shot from our center.
Other thoughts — positive
- 1% field goal percentage was the best of the conference season. Rutgers isn’t bad at defense either. Their strategy is to clog the paint and force teams to shoot 3s. Illinois shot better from 2 than 3.
- It was great to see Nunn bounce back from a poor shooting performance to a great one. Hill remains my favorite, but Nunn is closing the gap. Can I have two favorites?
- I got my thunderous Leron Black dunk!
Next opponent — @ Michigan State 2/7 (Saturday) 11:00 AM
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Even with a 15–7 record, MSU is the 23rd ranked team in the country according to KenPom. This is a huge road test that a victory will gain us a lot of cred.
Bubble watch
Joe Lunardi is now updating his Bracketology twice a week. It was updated this morning, 2/5, and right now Lunardi doesn’t even have us on his bubble. I will start including the games to watch in this section, any game that a bubble team in front of us may be primed to lose. Of course, our boys have to continue winning, but we also have to replace current teams.
- Tennessee (Next Four Out) — @ Georgia, Saturday 2/7
- NC State (Next Four Out) — Virginia, Wednesday 2/11
- Clemson (First Four Out) — @ Miami (Last Four In), Sunday 2/8
- Kansas State (First Four Out) — Texas, Saturday 2/7 (Can’t let Bruce get in over us)
- George Washington (First Four Out) — Dayton, Friday 2/6
- Purdue (Last Four In) — @ Minnesota, Saturday 2/7 (have the H2H win, but do play them again)
- Xavier (Last Four Byes) — Providence, Saturday 2/7
- Iowa (Last Four Byes) — @ Michigan, Thursday 2/5 — Maryland, Sunday, 2/8 (we still play @ Iowa)
We got through the “easy” part of our schedule and took care of what we needed to. The remaining games (except Northwestern) will all be tough and all wins build towards improving our profile. No predictions just yet, but I’ll be cheering! I-L-L!
