What Next?
What is left to determine this season? The NCAA tournament is likely out and the NIT may actually be less likely (more on that later). The Non-Con schedule left everyone upset but most of that was due to in-game injuries which combined with the already injured from before the season. The team won seven of their last nine in the non-con, none building all that much confidence. The two losses in that stretch were against far-and-away the best two teams on the schedule. There are always lessons to learn in the non-con but the conference schedule is where the schooling actually begins. Even in a down year that will probably fall far short of their aspirations, finding out where you rank in the Big Ten is important for now and the future.
In four games, we’ve seen a wide spread of outcomes from the team and their coaches. In the Michigan game, the story was a tale of two halves (as were multiple games in the non-con) which led to a home loss. The Ohio State game was uplifting and led to a very competitive game on the road. It’s hard to take anything out of the Michigan State game due to Kendrick Nunn being out. Then, there’s that Purdue game — clearly, only optimism can be taken from everything that went into that game. The game plan, execution and completion were very close to perfect. With all four of these games, a different conclusion can be had from each and give out different reasons to believe or disbelieve in these players and much more importantly for the program, these coaches.
Second half adjustments
An undeniable theme ever since the Iowa State game is that the Illini have played much better in first halves than the second. A possible non-coincidence is that in the Iowa State game Mike Thorne, Jr. was injured in the first half. This would be an easy thing to point at for blame but my mind goes back to last year’s regular season finale when the Illini dominated the first half at Mackey Arena against Purdue only to come back from the locker room and look completely lost in the second half. In this season, the Illini had 20 point leads in the first half of the games between South Dakota and Missouri only to find themselves hanging on in the waning minutes of the game. Possible reasons for looking good in the first half only to see leads slip away mostly have to do with coaching. Of course the Illini have depth issues and fatigue can take a toll on a team missing so many of its usual regulars. However, opposing coaches have been able to make adjustments to what Illinois was doing in the first half to flip things in their favor. Coach Groce has shown few examples of countering back.
Surprise injuries
If there’s one word to summarize this season for the Illini, its injury. The string of occurrences that has happened to this team is startling. Even if we ignore the knee injuries to Abrams, Thorne and Black there is still plenty to talk about. You can add in a case of the mumps (yes, that’s an actual thing that happened) and a child birth causing players to miss games this season.
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It’s been the timing of these occurrences that has made them costly. Mike Thorne was hurt in the first half of a very important back-to-back in the non-con schedule. Not only did this cost Groce one of his starters but it also causes a severe change in game planning. It may be the mark of a great coach to be able to be as flexible as possible but I don’t think there are many coaches that can do what has been asked from Groce. My biggest defense for the Coach is that his offense that he brought from Ohio was point guard-centered. Enough can be (and has been) said about the lack of point guard recruits but regardless, Groce lost his starting point guard before even one game in each of the last two seasons. Last year, he tried to run the same offense with the backups (Starks and Tate) and it didn’t work. This year it seemed that Groce understood the need for a change and was looking to use his front court strength to center an offense around his big men. And then, Thorne goes down, and Black goes down, and it’s back to the drawing board. When that happens during a game against the number four team in the country followed by a strong opponent coming up three days later, it’s a lot to ask to draw up (and practice) an entire new offense.
After winning five straight, against albeit a week stretch of the schedule, some optimism had to be there for the Illini heading into Big Ten season. A day or two before the opener vs Michigan and news breaks that starting point guard Khalid Lewis has the mumps. Not making Lewis’s absence the reason for the loss but I’m certain adjustments had to be made quickly. The team looked better against Ohio State without Lewis but fell just short.
With Lewis back, they headed out to play another top 5 team in the country but news broke shortly before the game that Kendrick Nunn would not be making the trip due to not a tragic event, but the birth of his child. I’m not sure how many days, or possibly even hours, Groce had to adjust the plan for the Spartans but from the results on the court, it didn’t look like there was much time to practice it.
Malcolm Hill
Missing Kendrick Nunn leads very nicely into a conversation about the best player on the Illini, Malcolm Hill. I am sticking to that opinion even though Nunn is making it harder to do so with his brilliant play this season. I am sticking with it as well even though Hill has a tendency to disappear in games, which is becoming a disturbing trend. I looked back at some of the bigger games this season and last and found some scary stats. Going back to that horrible Purdue loss last season, Malcolm was 3/7 in the first half but only took three shots in the second. In the Notre Dame game this year, Malcolm only had three shots in the first half and only had three in the second until the final thirty seconds when he made four (practically uncontested) baskets. In the Michigan game, Hill went 1/6 in the first half and 2/5 in the second half (Nunn 5/7 and 4/9). More has to be expected for Hill to remain seen as the best player on this team — which he should be. He has to be the go-to guy, no matter what focus the opposing defense is giving to him.
Purdue
The fantastic thing about the recent win against Purdue is it put all of these issues away, at least for forty minutes. The team was at full strength, or what is considered full strength at this point in time. The game plan was strong from the start. They took a tie into the locker room but then came out in the second half with more energy that has been seen in a long time. Possibly most importantly, Malcolm Hill was a beast all game, always making his presence known.
Now the next question is can they build from this. Was this performance due to playing a team that has not had much success in Champaign recently? The upcoming schedule opens up nicely and is a chance to see if this team can turn the corner. The worst thing that I can envision right now is having a fairly similar team in Nebraska, come to your house and take a game from you. I will be looking for the team to be healthy going in (full week off between games), a strong game plan for both halves and for Malcolm Hill to always be visible. With rumors floating around that Mike Thorne could return this season, there is an abundance of talent in the Orange and Blue. I mentioned at the beginning of the article that an NCAA berth is more likely than an NIT. Well, a team has to be at least .500 to make the NIT. While that is a very reasonable goal, with a current 9–8 record, this could prove to be somewhat difficult. For an NCAA berth however, they only have to win four or five games in March during the Big Ten tournament. The Big Ten is nowhere near as strong as it has been this decade and with the talent on this team (and a nice bracket), I wouldn’t put it out of the question for this team. As long as this team continues to improve, and there are no more infectious diseases spreading in the locker room, the season is still young and so is all of our analysis of this program. I would love to be impressed. I-L-L!
