The Pac-12 needs one more football team. There aren’t many good options
The Pac-12 is pumping its chest on social media this week after four of its eight future members earned berths into the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
But the conference still needs an eighth football-playing member in order to be a recognized league at the Football Bowl Subdivision level.
As it stands now, the conference’s roster will include eight total members in the Fall of 2026, but Gonzaga does not play football, leaving the Pac-12 one football-playing member below the threshold.
So which school is the conference going to add? There aren’t many good options after the top targets from the AAC said no, and UNLV and Air Force chose to stay in the Mountain West.
If Mountain West or AAC teams (notably Memphis, Tulane, UTSA and South Florida) put themselves back out there, they would rise to the top of the list. But if that doesn’t happen, there aren’t a lot of great options out there.
Texas State
In October, Texas State’s athletic director released a statement saying that it ended talks with an “interested conference” and is committed to remaining in the Sun Belt Conference.
By all accounts, the “interested conference” was the Mountain West, not the Pac-12. If the Pac-12 comes calling, Texas State could be willing to make the move.
The rapidly-growing university set an enrollment record last fall, and the football program has become respectable in recent years.
After losing seasons in nine of their first 11 years at the FBS level, the Bobcats have gone 8–5 and won a bowl game in back-to-back seasons.
The school’s basketball teams have shown glimpses of success in recent years. The men’s team won the Sun Belt regular-season title in 2021 and 2022, and the women’s team won a regular-season crown in 2023.
The school also has a solid track record in baseball and softball.
According to Knight-Newhouse data from 2023, Texas State’s athletic department ranked third in the Sun Belt in revenue generation, behind only Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina.
Connecticut
I don’t think UConn would ever consider joining as a full member, but the Huskies — an independent in football — might consider joining as a football-only member.
That would give the Pac-12 eight full members and eight football-playing members (with UConn filling in for Gonzaga on the football side), which would meet the NCAA’s minimum standards.
UConn, a national brand in men’s and women’s basketball, turned things around on the football field last year with a 9–4 record and bowl win over North Carolina.
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This could be a match for both sides. It would make football scheduling easier for the Huskies without affecting their other sports, and would allow the Pac-12 to hit the membership mark. Pac-12 teams would only have to make the cross-country trip once every other year.
Any other school joining the Pac-12 as a football-only member would have to find a home for its other sports teams. But UConn is an exception, with its other sports already housed in the non-football-playing Big East.
Sacramento State
Could a school currently at the FCS level be the best option?
Sacramento State’s president has been very vocal about wanting to make the jump to the FBS level, and the school is pumping money into athletics to try to make it happen.
The Pac-12 would probably rather have an established FBS member, but this could end up being a marriage of convenience.
Sac State fits right into the conference’s footprint and would maybe sign on for a discounted portion of TV revenue for a period of time (much like Washington and Oregon did in the Big Ten, and Cal, Stanford and SMU did in the ACC).
The Hornets reached the FCS playoffs three straight years from 2021–23, including reaching the quarterfinals in 2022.
The transition from FCS to FBS takes a couple years, though, so it may take some finagling to make this work. Perhaps the conference could get a waiver to play a couple seasons as a seven-team conference while Sac State (or another school) makes the transition.
North Dakota State/South Dakota State/Montana/Montana State
If the Pac-12 ends up looking to the FCS for a new member, there are several successful football programs in the western part of the country.
Though none of these schools have publicly expressed interest in moving up to the FBS level, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana and Montana State all seem like schools that could be ready to make a jump.
North Dakota State has won 10 FCS championships dating back to the 2011 season, and South Dakota State won titles in 2022 and 2023. Montana State (2) and Montana (1) have combined to make three finals appearances in the last four years.
The schools are competitive in basketball, too. They’ve all reached the NCAA men’s tournament at least once since 2019, and two of them reached this year’s women’s tournament (South Dakota State and Montana State).
New Mexico State
This one is a massive longshot. The Aggies have one of the lowest revenue-producing programs in the FBS and they‘re second-fiddle to UTEP in a very small media market.
But New Mexico State, a Conference USA member, does check a few boxes if the Pac-12 gets desperate.
NMSU is the one school sitting out there that currently plays FBS football, fits the current Pac-12 footprint and doesn’t play in the AAC or Mountain West.
The Aggies would surely jump at the opportunity to get back into a conference with several old WAC opponents, and would almost certainly sign on for a discounted revenue share.
The football team went 3–9 last year, but did go 10–5 and reach the Conference USA title game in 2023.
