Recent changes to wiki

Discussion for SF access page

mikayel grigoryan — Thu, 27 Feb 2020 12:01:41 -0000

Исправлено.

Discussion for SF access page

Minas Abrahamyan — Thu, 27 Feb 2020 09:38:10 -0000

Приветствую (спасибо за словарь),
Создайте пожалуйста блог-пост, страницу, или дайте email куда присылать исправления
Страница support указывает теперь на несуществующую страницу...

В частности, надо заменить:
ՄԵՐՈՆՔ րոնց (հոգն.) Ниши, свой.
на
ՄԵՐՈՆՔ րոնց (հոգն.) Наши, свои.

SF access modified by mikayel grigoryan

mikayel grigoryan — Tue, 09 Apr 2019 07:16:32 -0000

--- v4
+++ v5
@@ -1,15 +1,9 @@
 Shell access:
-============
+-----
     ssh -t USER,PROJECT@shell.sourceforge.net create
 Access  folder: **/home/user-web/jsmith/htdocs/**

-[SF help page][1]
-
-[1]: https://sourceforge.net/apps/trac/sourceforge/wiki/Shell%20service
+[SF file access help page](https://sourceforge.net/p/forge/documentation/File Management/)

 Logs:
-============
-
+-----
 Access  folder: **/home/logs-project-web/PROJECT_NAME/**

-[SF help page][2]
-
-[2]: https://sourceforge.net/apps/trac/sourceforge/wiki/Project%20web#AccessLogs

BlackSwan digest modified by mikayel grigoryan

mikayel grigoryan — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 13:12:17 -0000

--- v12
+++ v13
@@ -1,19 +1,16 @@
 ## Chapter 10 / The scandal of prediction
-
-Финансовые аналитики не умеют прогнозировать.
------
+**Финансовые аналитики не умеют прогнозировать**

 This refers to scientific paper by Jean Philippe Bouchaud, [Experts’ earning forecasts: bias,herding and gossamer information](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/55f4/7f02cef130f746091e0b14fdf63192cec755.pdf).
 > He surprised me with a research paper that a summer intern had just finished under his supervision and that had just been accepted for publication; it scrutinized two thousand predictions by security analysts. What it showed was that these brokerage-house analysts predicted nothing—a naïve forecast made by someone who takes the figures from one period as predictors of the next would not do markedly worse.
-
-Иногда дополнительная информация токсична
 -----
+**Иногда дополнительная информация токсична**

 This refers to scientific paper [Overconfidence in case-study judgements](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1965-12467-001).
 >  In 1965, Stuart Oskamp supplied clinical psychologists with successive files, each containing an increasing amount of information about patients; the psychologists’ diagnostic abilities did not grow with the additional supply of information. They just got more confident in their original diagnosis. Granted, one may not expect too much of psychologists of the 1965 variety, but these findings seem to hold across disciplines.

-Фейковые эксперты, калибровка экспертных прогнозов
------
+---
+**Фейковые эксперты, калибровка экспертных прогнозов**

 This refers to scientific paper [Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/074959789290064E).
 >  The psychologist James Shanteau undertook the task of finding out which disciplines have experts and which have none.
@@ -21,13 +18,13 @@
 This refers to scientific paper [The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/for.3980010202) and [The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207000000571).
 > The most interesting test of how academic methods fare in the real world was run by Spyros Makridakis, who spent part of his career managing competitions between forecasters who practice a “scientific method” called econometrics—an approach that combines economic theory with statistical measurements. Simply put, he made people forecast in real life and then he judged their accuracy. This led to the series of “M-Competitions” he ran, with assistance from Michele Hibon, of which M3 was the third and most recent one, completed in 1999. Makridakis and Hibon reached the sad conclusion that “statistically sophisticated or complex methods do not necessarily provide more accurate forecasts than simpler ones.”

-Нобелевская премия за модель GARCH, валидность которой не подтверждена
 -----
+**Нобелевская премия за модель GARCH, валидность которой не подтверждена**

 [Bio of Robert Eggel](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2003/engle/biographical/) in Nobel Prize.
 > The econometrician Robert Engel, an otherwise charming gentleman, invented a very complicated statistical method called GARCH and got a Nobel for it. No one tested it to see if it has any validity in real life. Simpler, less sexy methods fare exceedingly better, but they do not take you to Stockholm.

-Экономикс - башня из слоновой кости
 -----
+**Экономикс - башня из слоновой кости**

 > Economics is the most insular of fields; it is the one that quotes least from outside itself! Economics is perhaps the subject that currently has the highest number of philistine scholars—scholarship without erudition and natural curiosity can close your mind and lead to the fragmentation of disciplines.

BlackSwan digest modified by mikayel grigoryan

mikayel grigoryan — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 13:06:08 -0000

--- v11
+++ v12
@@ -1,16 +1,19 @@
 ## Chapter 10 / The scandal of prediction

-* **Финансовые аналитики не умеют прогнозировать.**
+Финансовые аналитики не умеют прогнозировать.
+-----

 This refers to scientific paper by Jean Philippe Bouchaud, [Experts’ earning forecasts: bias,herding and gossamer information](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/55f4/7f02cef130f746091e0b14fdf63192cec755.pdf).
 > He surprised me with a research paper that a summer intern had just finished under his supervision and that had just been accepted for publication; it scrutinized two thousand predictions by security analysts. What it showed was that these brokerage-house analysts predicted nothing—a naïve forecast made by someone who takes the figures from one period as predictors of the next would not do markedly worse.

-* **Иногда дополнительная информация токсична.**
+Иногда дополнительная информация токсична
+-----

 This refers to scientific paper [Overconfidence in case-study judgements](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1965-12467-001).
 >  In 1965, Stuart Oskamp supplied clinical psychologists with successive files, each containing an increasing amount of information about patients; the psychologists’ diagnostic abilities did not grow with the additional supply of information. They just got more confident in their original diagnosis. Granted, one may not expect too much of psychologists of the 1965 variety, but these findings seem to hold across disciplines.

-* **Фейковые эксперты, калибровка экспертных поргнозов**
+Фейковые эксперты, калибровка экспертных прогнозов
+-----

 This refers to scientific paper [Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/074959789290064E).
 >  The psychologist James Shanteau undertook the task of finding out which disciplines have experts and which have none.
@@ -18,11 +21,13 @@
 This refers to scientific paper [The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/for.3980010202) and [The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207000000571).
 > The most interesting test of how academic methods fare in the real world was run by Spyros Makridakis, who spent part of his career managing competitions between forecasters who practice a “scientific method” called econometrics—an approach that combines economic theory with statistical measurements. Simply put, he made people forecast in real life and then he judged their accuracy. This led to the series of “M-Competitions” he ran, with assistance from Michele Hibon, of which M3 was the third and most recent one, completed in 1999. Makridakis and Hibon reached the sad conclusion that “statistically sophisticated or complex methods do not necessarily provide more accurate forecasts than simpler ones.”

-* **Нобелевская премия за модель GARCH, валидность которой не подтверждена**
+Нобелевская премия за модель GARCH, валидность которой не подтверждена
+-----

 [Bio of Robert Eggel](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2003/engle/biographical/) in Nobel Prize.
 > The econometrician Robert Engel, an otherwise charming gentleman, invented a very complicated statistical method called GARCH and got a Nobel for it. No one tested it to see if it has any validity in real life. Simpler, less sexy methods fare exceedingly better, but they do not take you to Stockholm.

-* **Экономикс - башня из слоновой кости**
+Экономикс - башня из слоновой кости
+-----

 > Economics is the most insular of fields; it is the one that quotes least from outside itself! Economics is perhaps the subject that currently has the highest number of philistine scholars—scholarship without erudition and natural curiosity can close your mind and lead to the fragmentation of disciplines.

BlackSwan digest modified by mikayel grigoryan

mikayel grigoryan — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 12:17:41 -0000

--- v10
+++ v11
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 ## Chapter 10 / The scandal of prediction

 * **Финансовые аналитики не умеют прогнозировать.**
+
 This refers to scientific paper by Jean Philippe Bouchaud, [Experts’ earning forecasts: bias,herding and gossamer information](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/55f4/7f02cef130f746091e0b14fdf63192cec755.pdf).
 > He surprised me with a research paper that a summer intern had just finished under his supervision and that had just been accepted for publication; it scrutinized two thousand predictions by security analysts. What it showed was that these brokerage-house analysts predicted nothing—a naïve forecast made by someone who takes the figures from one period as predictors of the next would not do markedly worse.

BlackSwan digest modified by mikayel grigoryan

mikayel grigoryan — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 12:16:49 -0000

--- v9
+++ v10
@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 This refers to scientific paper by Jean Philippe Bouchaud, [Experts’ earning forecasts: bias,herding and gossamer information](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/55f4/7f02cef130f746091e0b14fdf63192cec755.pdf).
 > He surprised me with a research paper that a summer intern had just finished under his supervision and that had just been accepted for publication; it scrutinized two thousand predictions by security analysts. What it showed was that these brokerage-house analysts predicted nothing—a naïve forecast made by someone who takes the figures from one period as predictors of the next would not do markedly worse.

-* * **Иногда дополнительная информация токсична.**
+* **Иногда дополнительная информация токсична.**

 This refers to scientific paper [Overconfidence in case-study judgements](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1965-12467-001).
 >  In 1965, Stuart Oskamp supplied clinical psychologists with successive files, each containing an increasing amount of information about patients; the psychologists’ diagnostic abilities did not grow with the additional supply of information. They just got more confident in their original diagnosis. Granted, one may not expect too much of psychologists of the 1965 variety, but these findings seem to hold across disciplines.

BlackSwan digest modified by mikayel grigoryan

mikayel grigoryan — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 12:16:18 -0000

--- v8
+++ v9
@@ -1,6 +1,10 @@
 ## Chapter 10 / The scandal of prediction

-* **Иногда дополнительная информация токсична.**
+* **Финансовые аналитики не умеют прогнозировать.**
+This refers to scientific paper by Jean Philippe Bouchaud, [Experts’ earning forecasts: bias,herding and gossamer information](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/55f4/7f02cef130f746091e0b14fdf63192cec755.pdf).
+> He surprised me with a research paper that a summer intern had just finished under his supervision and that had just been accepted for publication; it scrutinized two thousand predictions by security analysts. What it showed was that these brokerage-house analysts predicted nothing—a naïve forecast made by someone who takes the figures from one period as predictors of the next would not do markedly worse.
+
+* * **Иногда дополнительная информация токсична.**

 This refers to scientific paper [Overconfidence in case-study judgements](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1965-12467-001).
 >  In 1965, Stuart Oskamp supplied clinical psychologists with successive files, each containing an increasing amount of information about patients; the psychologists’ diagnostic abilities did not grow with the additional supply of information. They just got more confident in their original diagnosis. Granted, one may not expect too much of psychologists of the 1965 variety, but these findings seem to hold across disciplines.

BlackSwan digest modified by mikayel grigoryan

mikayel grigoryan — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 08:42:00 -0000

--- v7
+++ v8
@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
 This refers to scientific paper [Overconfidence in case-study judgements](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1965-12467-001).
 >  In 1965, Stuart Oskamp supplied clinical psychologists with successive files, each containing an increasing amount of information about patients; the psychologists’ diagnostic abilities did not grow with the additional supply of information. They just got more confident in their original diagnosis. Granted, one may not expect too much of psychologists of the 1965 variety, but these findings seem to hold across disciplines.

-* **Фейковые эксперты**
+* **Фейковые эксперты, калибровка экспертных поргнозов**

 This refers to scientific paper [Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/074959789290064E).
 >  The psychologist James Shanteau undertook the task of finding out which disciplines have experts and which have none.
@@ -17,3 +17,7 @@

 [Bio of Robert Eggel](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2003/engle/biographical/) in Nobel Prize.
 > The econometrician Robert Engel, an otherwise charming gentleman, invented a very complicated statistical method called GARCH and got a Nobel for it. No one tested it to see if it has any validity in real life. Simpler, less sexy methods fare exceedingly better, but they do not take you to Stockholm.
+
+* **Экономикс - башня из слоновой кости**
+
+> Economics is the most insular of fields; it is the one that quotes least from outside itself! Economics is perhaps the subject that currently has the highest number of philistine scholars—scholarship without erudition and natural curiosity can close your mind and lead to the fragmentation of disciplines.

BlackSwan digest modified by mikayel grigoryan

mikayel grigoryan — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 08:35:03 -0000

--- v6
+++ v7
@@ -1,7 +1,11 @@
 ## Chapter 10 / The scandal of prediction
+
+* **Иногда дополнительная информация токсична.**

 This refers to scientific paper [Overconfidence in case-study judgements](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1965-12467-001).
 >  In 1965, Stuart Oskamp supplied clinical psychologists with successive files, each containing an increasing amount of information about patients; the psychologists’ diagnostic abilities did not grow with the additional supply of information. They just got more confident in their original diagnosis. Granted, one may not expect too much of psychologists of the 1965 variety, but these findings seem to hold across disciplines.
+
+* **Фейковые эксперты**

 This refers to scientific paper [Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/074959789290064E).
 >  The psychologist James Shanteau undertook the task of finding out which disciplines have experts and which have none.
@@ -9,5 +13,7 @@
 This refers to scientific paper [The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/for.3980010202) and [The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207000000571).
 > The most interesting test of how academic methods fare in the real world was run by Spyros Makridakis, who spent part of his career managing competitions between forecasters who practice a “scientific method” called econometrics—an approach that combines economic theory with statistical measurements. Simply put, he made people forecast in real life and then he judged their accuracy. This led to the series of “M-Competitions” he ran, with assistance from Michele Hibon, of which M3 was the third and most recent one, completed in 1999. Makridakis and Hibon reached the sad conclusion that “statistically sophisticated or complex methods do not necessarily provide more accurate forecasts than simpler ones.”

+* **Нобелевская премия за модель GARCH, валидность которой не подтверждена**
+
 [Bio of Robert Eggel](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2003/engle/biographical/) in Nobel Prize.
 > The econometrician Robert Engel, an otherwise charming gentleman, invented a very complicated statistical method called GARCH and got a Nobel for it. No one tested it to see if it has any validity in real life. Simpler, less sexy methods fare exceedingly better, but they do not take you to Stockholm.